Golden Dome: Early assessment and open questions

The "Golden Dome" national missile defense system presents significant fiscal and strategic challenges, with Congressional Budget Office estimates projecting a $1.2 trillion price tag over twenty years. Space-based interceptors, intended to counter threats during the boost phase, account for approximately 60% of these costs while facing daunting technical hurdles, including high absentee ratios and the "discrimination problem" of distinguishing warheads from decoys. Beyond financial burdens, the deployment of such a system risks triggering an arms race, as adversaries like Russia and China may expand their offensive arsenals to maintain deterrence. While proponents argue that limited defenses could mitigate risks from accidental launches or brinkmanship, critics contend that relying on deterrence and arms control remains more effective than pursuing an imperfect, costly shield that could ultimately undermine global stability and increase the likelihood of nuclear escalation.