China’s Endgame: ASI Timelines, US-China Relations, and the $1.7T AI Bubble With Alvin Graylin | #281

The US-China AI race is fundamentally a coordination problem, or "Stag Hunt," rather than a zero-sum "Prisoner's Dilemma." Alvin Graylin, an expert with decades of experience in both ecosystems, notes that US export controls on chips have inadvertently accelerated Chinese innovation, forcing the development of a resilient domestic semiconductor industry. While the US focuses on brute-force scaling and massive data center investment, China prioritizes industrial integration through its "AI Plus" strategy and open-source models. The current US AI sector faces significant fragility, characterized by massive off-book debt and extreme market over-valuation. Ultimately, the most pressing risk is not nation-state competition, but the proliferation of accessible, smaller AI models that empower non-state actors to execute cyber and biochemical attacks, necessitating a shift toward shared safety standards and international cooperation rather than continued isolationist policies.