Is This the End of U.S. Biofuels? || Peter Zeihan

The U.S. ethanol mandate, which currently consumes nearly half of the domestic corn crop, faces obsolescence as global supply chains destabilize and food security concerns intensify. Originally supported by a coalition of agricultural interests, environmentalists, and national security advocates, the rationale for biofuels has eroded. The shale revolution secured American energy independence, while lifecycle carbon analysis suggests ethanol provides negligible environmental benefits compared to gasoline. As post-globalization disruptions threaten to remove one-third of global food production, the economic incentive for farmers will shift from subsidized fuel production toward high-demand human consumption. Countries like Brazil and China remain vulnerable due to their reliance on imported agricultural inputs, positioning the United States as a critical but strained food source. Ultimately, the transition from a globalized surplus to a resource-scarce reality renders the diversion of row crops for fuel both economically and strategically unviable.