Kan Oljefondet forsvinne? | Finanstalen | Arendalsuka 2026 | Nicolai Tangen

The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, commonly known as the Oil Fund, has served as a critical financial pillar for Norway since 1996, currently funding 25% of the state budget. While the fund has experienced unprecedented growth, reaching over 22,000 billion kroner, this success relies on a rule limiting annual spending to expected market returns. Historical precedents, such as the economic decline of nations like Spain and Argentina, demonstrate that extreme wealth is rarely maintained indefinitely. Current global conditions—characterized by geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and speculative AI valuations—mirror the instability preceding the 1929 Great Depression. Maintaining long-term financial security requires mental preparedness for potential downturns, as a significant market correction could drastically reduce the fund’s capacity to support essential public services, challenging the assumption that the exceptional market performance of the last three decades is the new normal.