Best of Pre-Mortem Analysis: Gary Klein

Pre-mortem analysis serves as a critical risk assessment tool for investment teams, shifting the focus from speculative critique to an investigation of why a hypothetical plan has already failed. By forcing team members to imagine a future disaster, this technique bypasses the overconfidence and groupthink that often plague planning sessions. Effective implementation requires psychological safety, ensuring that even junior members can voice concerns without fear of reprisal. The process, which should remain brief to maintain energy, encourages cognitive diversity and surfaces "unknown unknowns" that are frequently ignored during standard reviews. Cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, alongside Paul Johnson and Paul Sonkin, emphasizes that this method transforms organizational culture from one of hiding to one of candor, ultimately improving decision-making by leveraging the collective tacit knowledge of the group rather than relying solely on rigid checklists.