The Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA) maintains a 9.5% annualized return since its 2022 inception, outperforming the SG CTA benchmark by 6% while providing diversification comparable to a 60-40 portfolio. Recent performance volatility stems primarily from oil market fluctuations, driven by uncertainty surrounding potential peace agreements and supply chain bottlenecks in the Gulf. While interest rates remain a central concern due to sticky inflation and fiscal deficit sustainability, the fund’s systematic approach to trading interest rate and commodity futures offers a hedge against these macroeconomic pressures. Charlie McGarraugh, CIO at Altus Partners, notes that oil contract pricing currently functions as a financialized expression of geopolitical settlement expectations rather than a reflection of supply-demand fundamentals. The strategy’s intentional exclusion of equity and FX markets continues to serve as a core differentiator for portfolio risk management.
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