Art Berman: The Global Energy Order Is Breaking

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has fundamentally altered global energy markets, rendering the traditional "grand bargain" of U.S.-guaranteed maritime trade obsolete. Energy industry consultant Art Berman highlights that while markets obsess over short-term tanker flow disruptions, the true crisis lies in the 10 million barrels per day of upstream production currently shut in. Unlike a simple switch, restarting these wells involves severe technical risks, as debris and pressure changes can permanently damage reservoir productivity. Markets often misinterpret these systemic shocks, focusing on near-term price volatility rather than the long-term structural decline in energy supply. This shift signifies a permanent departure from pre-conflict energy norms, as the global economy struggles to adapt to a reality where the United States can no longer effectively secure critical energy choke points.