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14 Aug 2026
1h 4m

It's a bull market and nobody drinks anymore.

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The Compound and Friends

The ETF industry is experiencing an unprecedented surge in activity, with over 900 new funds launched year-to-date. This explosion is driven by lower launch costs and a shift toward thematic, leveraged, and option-income strategies that cater to specific investor demands. Major financial institutions are aggressively acquiring niche ETF shops to capture this growing market, signaling a move toward more specialized, sticky assets. While thematic funds often face high failure rates, they operate on a "Hollywood box office" model where a few hits subsidize the flops. Emerging trends, such as prediction market ETFs and "compute" funds, highlight the industry's ongoing push to package new asset classes for retail investors. Despite the proliferation of products, brand loyalty and distribution power remain the primary determinants of long-term success in an increasingly crowded and competitive landscape.

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