El Niño represents a consequential, measurable ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that reconfigures global weather by redistributing heat energy. Unlike temporary weather shocks, El Niño events systematically depress long-term global economic growth, creating cascading impacts across agriculture, mining, and supply chains. Justin Mankin, Professor of Geography at Dartmouth and Director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts Group, notes that the upcoming record-breaking El Niño could result in $10 to $14 trillion in global economic losses over five years. Because these hazards occur simultaneously across disparate regions, they disrupt capital investment and labor mobilization, effectively knocking economies off their projected growth trajectories. Despite historical awareness of these patterns, global adaptation remains inadequate, leaving the world vulnerable to the compounding effects of El Niño in an era of accelerating climate change.
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