Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest escalation in supply uncertainties from the Middle East. This we discuss with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, together with the factors driving the recent gold and silver resurgence. Elsewhere, markets look potentially pivotal on the reaction to Wednesday's US CPI release as US long treasury yields are pinned at cycle highs. Plenty of single stock stories and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups.
FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot".
The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.

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Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI

Saxo Market Call

Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI