The Last Bubble Starved Energy. This One Starves Housing. Is the Opportunity Where the Money Isn't?

AI-driven capital expenditure is currently distorting the economy by siphoning resources away from critical sectors like housing and infrastructure, creating a significant misallocation of capital. While the Kolecki-Levy framework—where one person's spending generates income for another—explains current economic resilience, this dynamic remains fragile if corporate spending patterns shift. Investors must navigate this uncertainty by prioritizing rational, probabilistic decision-making over raw intelligence. Trading success hinges on maintaining flexibility and avoiding the common bias of perpetual bearishness, which often leads to missed opportunities. By treating investment views as hypotheses to be updated with new information rather than fixed convictions, market participants can better manage risk and avoid the pitfalls of overcommitting during bubble-like market cycles.