Long story short: in my assessment, there is an 85% chance we will end up, in the next 24 months, with an open-weights model, or system thereof, capable of "The Juice" that models such as Mythos have, with respect to cybersecurity at the very least. This post goes into why that will likely happen, what the implications are, and how we, as a society and as individuals, can respond to it if/when it does.

First off: why do I say it's so likely? Like, couldn't China just...ban open-weights models, and then that solves the problem? Not so fast. Yes, China currently dominates the open-weights frontier. However, there are also open-weights AI labs in plenty of other countries (US, France, the UAE, South Korea, and Canada come to mind, and I'm sure there are others). Yes, some of these are substantially behind the frontier, but each of the aforementioned countries has an open-weights model no more than 24 months behind the current frontier (that's why I said 24 months earlier); remember, in Aug 2024, 24 months ago as of when I am writing this, the strongest models were Sonnet 3.5 and GPT 4o.

It seems highly unlikely that [...]

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First published:
August 7th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wJunGnpY3qACWSvnh/open-weights-mythos-capabilities-are-coming-we-re-not-ready

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Open-Weights Mythos Capabilities Are Coming. We’re Not Ready.” by hadad

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Open-Weights Mythos Capabilities Are Coming. We’re Not Ready.” by hadad