RenMac Off-Script: Forecasts > Feelings

Economic growth remains supported by supply-side improvements, deregulation, and technological advancements, with potential growth likely nearing 3%. Current inflation metrics, particularly core PCE, are skewed by measurement errors in categories like portfolio management fees and software, masking a more benign underlying inflation trend. Monetary policy requires a forecast-dependent approach, acknowledging the 12-18 month lag before interest rate adjustments influence the economy. Strategic use of tariffs provides benefits beyond trade, functioning as tools for national security, financial stability, and tax system optimization. While tech-focused momentum trades are showing signs of exhaustion, market breadth is expanding into sectors like healthcare. The current economic environment necessitates looking through short-term data noise to focus on long-run growth drivers and structural shifts in corporate capital allocation.