Javier Blas on Lessons from Closing Hormuz (So Far)

The current Middle East energy crisis, characterized by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and significant supply disruptions, has defied historical expectations by failing to trigger a catastrophic global economic collapse. Crude oil prices have remained in the mid-80s, buffered by China’s opaque but massive strategic stockpiling, effective market communication, and structural shifts like the rise of electric vehicles. While crude supply remains stable, the refining sector faces unprecedented pressure, with record-high margins and infrastructure damage keeping gasoline and diesel prices elevated. Meanwhile, global coal consumption continues to hit record highs, complicating the energy transition as emerging economies prioritize security over rapid decarbonization. Looking ahead, the industry must balance the high costs of building resilient infrastructure, such as bypass pipelines, against the long-term necessity of transitioning to cleaner energy sources to mitigate future geopolitical shocks.