Interdisciplinary Skills: Decision-Making – Annie Duke (2022)

Effective decision-making requires mastering the art of quitting, a skill often undervalued compared to the popular virtue of grit. Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and decision science expert, argues that sticking to a path and quitting are identical decisions, both made under uncertainty. Cognitive biases—such as sure loss aversion, the endowment effect, and identity-driven commitment—frequently trap individuals in failing endeavors, as illustrated by the 1996 Everest disaster or the decline of Sears. To overcome these obstacles, decision-makers should employ the "Monkeys and Pedestals" mental model by tackling the most difficult bottlenecks first to avoid false progress, and establish "Kill Criteria" to pre-commit to exit signals before emotional involvement clouds judgment. Ultimately, recognizing when to fold preserves resources and optionality, allowing for more productive future investments.