The Tungsten Market Is Warning of an Upcoming War

Tungsten acts as a critical, century-old "prediction market for war," with demand surging during geopolitical conflicts due to the metal's extreme density and heat resistance. These physical properties make it indispensable for modern military applications, including armor-piercing munitions and drone shrapnel. China currently controls roughly 80% of global production, creating significant supply chain vulnerabilities for Western nations. Despite its strategic necessity, private investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects remains limited because the market lacks a futures curve, preventing effective price hedging. Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling highlights the reopening of the Dolphin Mine in Tasmania as a microcosm of these challenges, noting that without government-backed floor prices or long-term security, restarting production in a market dominated by Chinese output remains a high-risk endeavor for private capital.