Two wars, no clear exit plan. Now what? | Ian Bremmer

The ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine represent significant geopolitical instability, driven by divergent strategic goals and leadership pressures. In Iran, the standoff centers on control of the Strait of Hormuz, where both the United States and Iranian leadership maintain a volatile, restrained middle ground to avoid total war despite substantial economic costs. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has evolved as Ukrainian forces demonstrate increased effectiveness, putting pressure on the Kremlin and its economy. Vladimir Putin faces growing isolation and internal strain, yet he remains resistant to ceasefire negotiations. While the global economy has proven more resilient than anticipated, the persistent disruption of energy markets and infrastructure continues to impose heavy costs. Ultimately, the influence of U.S. policy under President Trump faces clear limitations, as international actors increasingly hedge against his unpredictable approach to global security.