History’s Not Just About Great Men: Peter Frankopan on Iran and Ukraine

Geopolitical stability is currently being reshaped by the interplay of geography, logistics, and resource control rather than the actions of individual leaders. Historian Peter Frankopan argues that modern conflicts, such as the wars in Ukraine and between the United States and Iran, demonstrate the difficulty of achieving decisive victories against resilient, albeit smaller, states. Russia’s reliance on China for economic support has effectively turned it into a resource colony, while China continues to monitor these conflicts to refine its own military and strategic architecture. Global power dynamics remain heavily influenced by critical choke points, such as the Taiwan Strait, which are vital to international trade and semiconductor supply chains. Looking ahead, the accelerating impacts of climate change—specifically extreme weather patterns—will likely exacerbate global inequality and humanitarian crises, forcing nations to prioritize long-term survival strategies over traditional diplomatic cooperation.