Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade.

In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline.

James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever’s going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James’ reflections on New York City’s enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us.

To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday’s advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings.

On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market’s strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals.

Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.

"Natural Gas Is An AI Vertical" – James West, Melius Research

C.O.B. Tuesday

"Natural Gas Is An AI Vertical" – James West, Melius Research