While the world’s attention has focused on the Strait of Hormuz and the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, another potentially transformative front has opened in Lebanon. Israeli attacks against the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah have left more than 4,000 people dead and displaced over a million. Now, a fragile ceasefire has raised a question diplomats have struggled with for decades: Can Hezbollah actually be disarmed?

On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks with Lebanese-born journalist and Middle East expert Kim Ghattas about Iran’s shrinking regional influence, Israel’s possible plans for a long-term buffer zone, and Lebanon’s best chance in decades to reclaim control of its territory. Hezbollah remains armed, but Ghattas argues that it is substantially weaker, while the fall of Syria’s Assad regime has severed a crucial link in Iran’s regional network.

Forcing the Lebanese Army to confront Hezbollah could trigger another civil war. Instead, Ghattas says Lebanon must gradually constrain the group, strengthen state institutions, and show Hezbollah’s supporters that diplomacy can deliver more than armed resistance. That will require Israeli withdrawals, international support, and difficult negotiations over the political future of Lebanon’s Shia community.

“You constrain their capacity to operate. You crowd them out,” Ghattas says. “You demonstrate that diplomacy works and delivers for the Lebanese people in terms of aid, in terms of improved relations with the US.”

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Lebanon's best chance for peace, with Kim Ghattas

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Lebanon's best chance for peace, with Kim Ghattas