An Odyssey Through Market History

The current investment landscape mirrors the late 1990s and mid-2000s, suggesting a market cycle with further room for growth where equities likely outperform credit. Significant parallels include a sharp rise in corporate activity, with U.S. capital expenditure forecast to increase by over 20% in 2026 and 2027 driven by AI and energy infrastructure. Global M&A volumes have also surged 64% year-over-year, rebounding from historic lows. Macroeconomic indicators—specifically core PCE inflation, unemployment rates, and 10-year yields—align closely with averages from 1997-1998 and 2005-2006. Furthermore, a global trend toward financial deregulation in Europe and Asia echoes the policy shifts of those previous eras. While the late 90s focused on the internet and the mid-2000s on emerging markets, AI now serves as the primary catalyst for investment demand, though historical templates remain subject to unexpected volatility.