Mark Mills: AI's Dirty Secret Is Oil And Most Investors Have It Wrong

The AI boom is fundamentally linked to the global energy supply chain, where oil remains the world's largest traded commodity. While China lags behind the United States in frontier AI models, its ability to produce "good enough" technology poses a significant competitive risk to Western markets. Despite sustained demand for energy and minerals, commodity equities have lagged due to high capital costs and regulatory inertia, though a rotation toward these sectors is inevitable as supply constraints become critical. A return to historical U.S. productivity growth, driven by AI integration, offers a potential solution to long-term debt challenges. This economic shift, combined with the potential stabilization of geopolitical conflicts, sets the stage for a long-run commodities bull market, tempered by increased global participation and technological efficiency.