Global Commodities: Eyes back on Hormuz

The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with LNG shipments falling to 10% of pre-war levels and threatening winter supply security. Otar Dgebuadze, lead of European natural gas and global LNG research, highlights that these supply risks create significant upward price pressure as market participants recalibrate expectations for the coming winter. Concurrently, precious metals face near-term volatility driven by energy-induced inflation and Federal Reserve policy. However, the long-term structural case for gold remains robust, as central banks—particularly in emerging markets—persist in diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar. While the current breadth of central bank buying has narrowed due to macro-economic pressures, the underlying trend toward increased gold holdings persists, supporting a medium-term price recovery toward $5,000 per ounce as central banks continue to target higher reserve allocations.