409: Predicting biotech clinical trials & a new Alzheimer's drug controversy

Kalshi’s expansion into biotech prediction markets introduces significant ethical and practical concerns regarding the integrity of clinical trials. While these markets aim to aggregate dispersed expertise to improve decision-making, they risk introducing bias by potentially influencing patient enrollment and behavior in pivotal studies. Bioethicist Jonathan Kimmelman notes that while prediction markets could theoretically provide signals for institutional resource allocation, they threaten the ethical foundation of trials if they reveal information that should remain unknown until completion. Beyond this, the industry faces major developments, including Eli Lilly’s $2.8 billion acquisition of Atai Beckley for psychedelic research, the approval of Merck’s oral PCSK9 inhibitor Liprenda, and Biogen’s mixed phase two data for its tau-lowering Alzheimer’s candidate, Diranerson. These events highlight the ongoing tension between aggressive R&D investment and the inherent uncertainties of drug development.