On this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Cumberland Farms’ IPO filing and the surprising business behind it.

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LINKS:

Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN

CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 Preview and Intro

2:57 Key metrics

4:28 Europe now out-earns America

5:01 $5.8B debt at 8x leverage

6:20 TLDR: snacks, gas, borrowed money

7:58 Fuel vs. inside: the gross profit photo finish

8:58 COCO, CONCO, and OTHER explained

10:57 Sponsors — Maximor | Brex | Anrok

14:02 Why scale matters: four reasons

16:02 The US convenience store market

17:42 EVs: long the birth rate

18:05 Back to the debt

19:10 The sale leaseback

20:24 Sponsors — RightRev | Pulley | Rillet

23:26 Does the deleveraging math work?

24:27 The growth thesis

25:06 600–700 stores become Cumberland Farms

26:16 The chicken fryer ROI

27:00 Coffee and loyalty: 6M members in 13 months

28:15 Red flag 1: five-for-five COSO failures

28:41 Red flag 2: entire C-suite is new

29:04 Red flag 3: lending to their own parent

29:42 Red flag 4: Big Tobacco funds loyalty

29:57 Red flag 5: foreign issuer, Cayman charter

30:10 Red flag 6: one supplier is 31% of costs

30:32 Red flag 7: balance sheet is stale

30:45 Cap table: TDR Capital and the Issa brothers

31:55 Casey's vs. ARCO

33:47 Goldman got bumped

34:08 Massachusetts banned the pump clip until 2015

34:57 No health insurance disclosure for 16K US workers

35:30 Robert Swan (ex-Intel CEO) is on the board

36:08 Credits

Cumberland Farms S-1 Breakdown: Fuel, Snacks, and Debt

Run the Numbers

Cumberland Farms S-1 Breakdown: Fuel, Snacks, and Debt