129: Victor Haghani – Optimal Bet Sizing—Lessons From a Biased Coin Flip Experiment

This podcast episode examines the intriguing outcomes of a biased coin experiment conducted by Victor Haghani, revealing how common biases in decision-making can lead financial professionals to behave suboptimally despite favorable odds. By showcasing the importance of optimal bet sizing, particularly through the Kelly criterion, and extending the discussion to financial markets, the episode highlights the complexities of trade sizing, risk management, and the challenges faced in discerning true investment skill amidst historical data limitations.