[Linkpost to this. Loosely based on a lecture I gave in the recursive conference with the same title. Don’t take “2030” literally¹ —it could also be 2035 or 2040. As always, opinions are my own and do not represent OpenAI or Harvard.]

It is quite possible that AI will usher in a golden age for humanity. As Amodei writes in “Machines of Loving Grace,” AI might enable the “prevention and treatment of nearly all natural infectious diseases,” the “elimination of most cancer,” “prevention of Alzheimer's,” and even “doubling of the human lifespan.” Through increased growth, AI could lead to a reduced workweek, as well as universal basic income and health insurance. Universities might focus on education for its own sake, as opposed to vocational purposes. People will spend less time sitting on chairs and staring at screens, and more in relational jobs. AI may also lead to new ways to participate in democracy, as well as oversight of government.

And yet, what if, as Ice-T once said, “shit ain’t like that”? In this opinionated and somewhat informal essay, I want to consider this more pessimistic or “glass half empty” case. Specifically,