In this special episode of Tank Talks, recorded live during Toronto Tech Week at Moomoo Canada’s flagship store in Yorkville, Matt Cohen sits down with two of venture’s sharpest data and investment minds for an unfiltered conversation on the state of private markets.

Peter Walker, Senior Director of Insights at Carta, brings the hard numbers from 60,000+ companies and 3,000+ US venture funds, revealing the stark reality behind valuation markups, unicorn deterioration, and the widening dispersion between top-tier and median deals.

John Rikhtegar, Vice President at Northleaf Capital Partners and former RBC investor, offers the LP perspective on why trust matters more than ever, why emerging managers are bearing the brunt of capital allocation challenges, and how disciplined pacing and vintage diversification separate winning funds from the rest.

Together, they tackle the 4.3 trillion-dollar NAV overhang, the brutal graduation rates for 2021 vintage funds, whether valuations have permanently shifted, and why the ATM analogy might be the best way to understand AI’s impact on venture careers.

If you’re a GP raising capital, an LP sorting through manager pitches, or just trying to make sense of where venture is headed, this episode is a must-listen.

The Great LP Reset: Trust Over Performance (08:05)

* Why LPs are letting go of newer relationships while sticking with 15-year partners.

* The COVID furlough analogy: why junior and newer team members are the first to go.

* How trust became the ultimate table stakes in today’s fundraising environment.

The 4.3 Trillion Dollar NAV Problem (12:33)

* Why SpaceX’s IPO would return only 10% of capital deployed over the last decade.

* The staggering number of unicorns still sitting on stale marks from 2021.

* What happens when 50% of unicorn down rounds become the new normal.

Valuation Dispersion Is Breaking the Model (17:38)

* Seed valuations jumped from $15M post-money (2022) to $24M (2025).

* Series A went from $46M to nearly $80M in the same period.

* Why the gap between the top decile and the median has never been wider.

* How GPs must adapt ownership expectations or get priced out of deals.

The Unicorn Graveyard: Stale Marks and Deteriorating Assets (19:28)

* December 2021: 640 unicorns on Carta; 85% of current US unicorns.

* 30% have raised new up-rounds; of the rest, half raised down rounds of 50% or more.

* How GPs are forced to tell LPs that their “trophy assets” are no longer real.

Pacing, Reserves, and Portfolio Construction (22:53)

* Why disciplined 3-4 year deployment beats 18-month “firehose” strategies.

* The 80/20 reserve debate: why leading rounds can become a net negative.

* How “deal 13” is just as likely to succeed as “deal 12”, and why slightly larger portfolios make sense.

LP Diligence: It’s Not About the Marks (31:55)

* Why TDPI and DPI are just 2 of 100 mosaic factors in LP decision-making.

* How LPs now go company-by-company, not fund-by-fund.

* The importance of founder references, especially from failed companies.

Canada vs. The US: A Fractal Problem (40:44)

* Why every market (Toronto, Sydney, London, Seattle) faces the same “Silicon Valley problem.”

* The importance of domestic liquidity and secondary markets over chasing US LPs.

* Why returns, not international capital, will ultimately scale Canadian firms.

AI and the Future of Venture Careers (44:44)

* The ATM analogy: AI will eliminate tasks, not jobs.

* Why the role of the investor becomes more important as noise and froth increase.

* How family offices are shifting their mix between fund investing and direct deals.

Retail Access to Private Markets: Feature or Bug? (53:27)

* Why illiquidity in private markets is a feature, not a bug.

* The absurdity of allowing crypto “shitcoins” but blocking friends from investing in startups.

* Why “401k-entrance” to private equity is a bigger story than retail venture access.

About the Guests

Peter Walker is the Senior Director of Insights at Carta, where he leads the team responsible for analyzing data from over 60,000 companies and 3,000+ venture funds. His work on valuations, liquidity, and fundraising trends is widely cited across the venture ecosystem. He is a regular speaker at industry events and writes extensively on LinkedIn about the intersection of data and venture capital.

Connect with Peter Walker on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/peterjameswalker

Learn more about Carta: carta.com

John Rikhtegar is a Vice President at Northleaf Capital Partners, joining in early 2026 after a distinguished career at RBC and as an operator at Shopify and in the UK. He brings a unique blend of LP and operational perspectives, with deep expertise in due diligence, portfolio construction, and the dynamics of emerging manager investing.

Connect with John Rikhtegar on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnrikhtegar/

Learn more about Northleaf Capital Partners: https://www.northleafcapital.com/

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tanktalks.substack.com

The 4.3 Trillion Dollar Problem: Why Venture’s Liquidity Crisis Is Here to Stay with John Rikhtegar and Peter Walker

Tank Talks By Ripple Ventures

The 4.3 Trillion Dollar Problem: Why Venture’s Liquidity Crisis Is Here to Stay with John Rikhtegar and Peter Walker