Global Data Pod: Upside growth risks in the Euro area as Le Pen runs

Euro area economic growth shows signs of potential upside for the second quarter, driven by resilient manufacturing data and unexpected strength in consumer goods spending. While German industrial indicators, such as orders and factory sales, suggest a positive outlook bolstered by government reform efforts, the broader region exhibits mixed performance. Simultaneously, French political developments remain a focal point as Marine Le Pen confirms her presidential candidacy, despite ongoing legal challenges. The interplay between fiscal consolidation requirements, potential market reactions to deficit targets, and the evolving political landscape creates significant uncertainty for the 2027 budget and beyond. While the National Rally party maintains a leading position in polls, the final electoral lineup remains fluid, leaving the outcome of next April's presidential race subject to future developments and shifting voter sentiment.