The MoU is dead, long live the _______! - with Nadav Eyal

The collapse of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, marked by recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, signals a volatile shift in regional power dynamics. Iran, emboldened by its perceived influence and the U.S.’s domestic political constraints, continues to challenge maritime freedom, leading to renewed military strikes. Simultaneously, Turkey is rising as a dominant regional actor, leveraging its NATO membership and expanding defense industry to assert control in Syria and Lebanon. Israel finds itself in a precarious position, feeling vindicated by the MOU’s failure while deeply concerned that potential U.S. F-35 sales to Turkey could erode its qualitative military edge. As the regime in Tehran faces internal power struggles and the U.S. navigates complex regional alliances, the prospect of a full-scale war remains uncertain, though the current situation points toward continued escalation.