America at 250: A Net Assessment (w/ Robert Kagan)

The global order is shifting toward a multipolar, 19th-century-style system characterized by nations prioritizing self-interest over collective security. Historian Robert Kagan argues that American foreign policy is currently defined by a dual cycle: an internal struggle over national identity—pitting liberal democratic principles against a rising anti-liberal, nationalist movement—and a strategic oscillation toward retrenchment. As the United States retreats from its role as a global security guarantor, medium powers like Germany, Japan, and Iran are increasingly asserting their own influence. This transition creates a volatile environment where territorial aggression, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s pressure on Taiwan, becomes more likely. Ultimately, the survival of the post-World War II international system depends on whether the United States can reconcile its domestic political divisions and re-engage with its global responsibilities before the current order fully unravels.