Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.

Tobias Carlisle on X
https://x.com/Greenbackd

Acquirers Funds
https://acquirersfunds.com/

Topics covered:

Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks
The case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycle
Why equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shift
Whether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumers
The parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildouts
How AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investment
What the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychology
Why base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platforms
How disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industries
The energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matter
How Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEP
Why quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costs

Timestamps:

00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers
04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns
08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal
14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms
19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?
23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race
28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply
31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates
35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?
36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles
41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade
45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions
47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios
54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

Excess Returns

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees