Yesterday, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding starting the clock on a 60-day truce. The agreement intends to halt attacks, begin lifting the US naval blockade, and restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But deep uncertainty remains over how energy will actually flow through the waterway—and over the ultimate fate of Iran's nuclear program.

Add to this, an increasingly tense relationship between the US and Israel, which has said it does not consider itself bound by the MOU. And here in the US, political pressure could quickly shift Washington's calculations if the reopening of the Strait yields minimal strategic concessions on Iran's ballistic missiles, nuclear enrichment, and regional proxy networks.

So what happens next? How will global energy markets and regional security adjust if this temporary truce collapses? Who ultimately holds the leverage in this next phase of the crisis?

To address those and other questions about the ceasefire and the intersection of national and energy security, two people who recently sat at the very center of US foreign policy — Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer — joined Jason Bordoff for a special episode of Columbia Energy Exchange.

Jake served as National Security Advisor during the Biden Administration, where he was the chief architect of the 2022 National Security Strategy, coordinated the global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and designed the "small yard, high fence" framework for US-China technology competition. Last year he joined the Harvard Kennedy School as the Kissinger professor of the practice of statecraft and world order.

Jon served alongside him as Deputy National Security Advisor, bringing decades of experience in high-stakes diplomacy, crisis management, and international law to the highest levels of government. Jon held a number of roles in the Obama administration, including chief of staff to Secretary of State John Kerry. And he's a former distinguished visiting fellow at CGEP.

They are also the hosts of "The Long Game," an essential podcast for anyone trying to make sense of foreign policy and national security in our world today.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on the US-Iran Deal, Hormuz Realities, and Iran's Nuclear Future

Columbia Energy Exchange

Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on the US-Iran Deal, Hormuz Realities, and Iran's Nuclear Future