"But China!": Robert Wright on the AI Race and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning

Artificial intelligence represents a new evolutionary stage that demands a transition toward a global community to manage existential risks. Robert Wright, author of *The God Test*, argues that large language models evolve through selection by consequences, yet the current US-China arms-race dynamic forces developers to prioritize raw capability over safety and alignment. This competitive environment creates a prisoner's dilemma where mutual fear of falling behind justifies sabotage and destabilizing chip export controls, which paradoxically accelerate China’s domestic innovation while manufacturing the belligerence they aim to contain. Navigating this threshold requires "cognitive empathy"—the disciplined modeling of an adversary's perspective—to move beyond tribal attribution errors. Without this shift in global governance and a move toward transparency, the race toward superintelligence threatens to destabilize international order and undermine the long-term flourishing of the species.