Bitcoin’s market cycle bottoms are historically signaled by the crossing of the supply-in-profit and supply-in-loss metrics. This crossover indicates that a cycle low is forming, though the absolute bottom typically occurs one to four months after the initial flip. Historical data from 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022 confirms this cadence, with lows appearing shortly after the lines intersect. Current technical indicators show these metrics have recently crossed, suggesting a market bottom may materialize between July and October. While momentum drives sustained bull markets when 100% of supply is in profit, bear market rallies often result in lower highs until this specific crossover occurs. Establishing a dollar-cost averaging strategy after the mid-year low remains a historically effective approach, as the four-year cycle continues to provide a reliable framework for navigating crypto market volatility regardless of shifting macroeconomic narratives.
Sign in to continue reading, translating and more.
Open full episode in Podwise