Will Xi Jinping cross the Taiwan Strait?

Beijing’s strategy to bring Taiwan under its control relies on a dual approach: the "stick" of military intimidation and the "carrot" of economic and cultural integration. Despite decades of missile drills, naval blockades, and infrastructure projects like the Xiamen-Jinmen Bridge, these methods have failed to secure unification. The 1996 democratic elections marked a turning point where Taiwan defied mainland threats, and subsequent polling shows a significant decline in Taiwanese citizens identifying as Chinese. Efforts to leverage shared cultural heritage, such as the worship of the goddess Mazu, have similarly proven ineffective at shifting political sentiment. With military modernization efforts currently in disarray and the window for a swift, successful annexation narrowing, the goal of peaceful or forced reunification remains increasingly elusive, leaving the future of cross-strait relations at a strategic impasse.