Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography

Geopolitical strategy hinges on the fundamental divide between continental and maritime powers. Continental empires, historically characterized by land-based expansion and internal lines of communication, frequently engage in negative-sum conflicts over territory, often resulting in catastrophic loss of life and wealth. Conversely, maritime powers leverage external lines of communication and global trade networks to foster positive-sum economic growth. While continental powers prioritize territorial insulation and exclusive zones, maritime powers champion freedom of navigation and international institutions to minimize transaction costs. Modern global stability relies on a maritime-led, rules-based order that uses alliances, diplomacy, and targeted containment to manage rogue states. This approach avoids the ruinous costs of direct military confrontation, favoring long-term economic compounding and institutional cooperation over the destructive, zero-sum territorial ambitions that historically defined continental empires.