Tyler Cowen & Alex Tabarrok on AI, Jobs, and Economic Growth

Strong AI will likely catalyze economic growth and job creation rather than causing mass unemployment, mirroring historical technological shifts like the Industrial Revolution. Productivity gains from AI will likely manifest as shorter work weeks, longer retirements, and expanded leisure time, rather than permanent joblessness. While "messy jobs"—those requiring complex human coordination, elderly care, or infrastructure management—will remain resilient, the upper-middle class in professional services faces significant disruption. The primary economic challenge lies in managing the transition and ensuring broad distribution of AI’s benefits, such as through competitive markets and unlocking medical data. Ultimately, the decreasing cost of intelligence promises to raise global living standards, provided that societies avoid zero-sum thinking and focus on solving critical bottlenecks like energy and compute scarcity.