Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific.

In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.”

The conversation covers:

Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world today
How a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward posture
The expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon Strait
Whether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarity
Philippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the alliance
Japan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest Islands
The race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architecture
Why this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-Pacific

Whether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships.

👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn or X, @LisaCurtisDC; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn or X, @RyanHClaffey

👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook

👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn

👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn

👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey