How CEOs can navigate the new era of trade

Global trade is undergoing a complex, surgical reconfiguration rather than simple fragmentation, driven by geopolitical alignment and the strategic necessity of resilience. While direct U.S.-China trade has declined, total trade continues to grow, with AI-related value chains and emerging "connecting economies" like ASEAN playing pivotal roles in maintaining global supply chain integrity. Foreign direct investment serves as a critical leading indicator, reorienting twice as fast as trade flows toward future-shaping sectors. Simultaneously, organizations must treat AI transformation as a fundamental people-centric shift rather than a purely technological one. Achieving tangible EBITDA uplift requires dynamic learning cycles, unlearning outdated operational orthodoxies, and anchoring AI initiatives to specific outcome-based KPIs like yield or customer satisfaction. McKinsey partners Shubham Singhal, Jeongmin Seong, and Kate Smaje provide these insights to help leaders navigate volatility and realize meaningful returns on technology investments.