Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?

The economic implications of AGI center on how automation will reshape labor markets, capital shares, and wealth distribution. While historical industrial shifts suggest that new service-oriented sectors eventually absorb displaced workers, the potential for rapid, large-scale automation raises concerns about the "messy middle"—a period of significant job displacement without immediate, broad-based wealth creation. Alex Imas and Phil Trammell highlight the persistence of human-intrinsic "relational" sectors where consumers value human presence, and the challenge of indexing the economy to ensure equitable access to AI-driven gains. Rather than relying on complex retraining programs, broad-based strategies like indexing the economy or implementing negative income taxes offer more viable paths for distributing prosperity. Ultimately, the transition to an AI-integrated economy depends on whether AI functions like electricity, providing widespread downstream benefits, or creates concentrated rents similar to social media platforms.