Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive.

The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects.

🔍 What You’ll Learn:

Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearish
How to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and rising
Why Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energy
How mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve)
The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 years
Why energy security is now a structural demand driver
How the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delays
The coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas prices
Why AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gas
How electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stack
Priyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle

Pitch The PM

EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle