A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

AI represents a fundamental technological shift comparable to the internet or mobile, yet its long-term impact remains characterized by radical uncertainty. While concerns about a "jobpocalypse" persist, historical precedents suggest that automation typically unlocks new, unforeseen roles rather than causing permanent mass unemployment. The current phase mirrors the 1997 internet era, where most applications are still being built and the ultimate winners remain unclear. Professional services firms, rather than being replaced, are increasingly essential for integrating AI into complex enterprise workflows. Furthermore, foundation model companies may face margin compression as their technology becomes a commodity, shifting the primary value capture toward the application layer. Navigating this future requires active engagement and experimentation rather than passive resistance, as the most transformative AI use cases will likely emerge from solving specific, high-value problems rather than simple task automation.