This was produced as a part of the AI Safety Camp 2026 "Assumptions of the Doom Debate" project, led by Sean Herrington, who was also the lead author on this post. The other participants have equal contributions and are listed in no particular order. It is the first in a sequence we intend to publish over the coming weeks.

TL;DR:

We have created a breakdown of AI threat pathways, which can be accessed at https://lifeuniversesafety.com/doom-assumptions/index.html
This breakdown is in a tree format, and we allow people to set their own probabilities for each threat pathway
You can use this to drill down into components of your P(Doom)
You can analyse the sensitivity of your beliefs to changes in your assumptions
You can compare your worldview to others’ and find cruxes automatically
The exercise of creating this sort of structure is valuable as a way to think about the future in a more general manner.

Introduction

Just about everyone in the AI community seems to disagree about the risks of the technology. People disagree on the likelihood (Yann LeCun: <0.01% chance of extinction; Roman Yampolskiy: >99.99%), the worst threat (AI takeover vs concentration of power vs gradual disempowerment [...]