Episode 27: Talk with Paul Triolo

The US-China tech rivalry centers on the weaponization of supply chains and the race for advanced artificial intelligence, creating profound structural instability. Export controls on high-performance semiconductors, initiated in October 2022, reflect a narrow focus on preventing military modernization and cyber warfare, yet these policies lack comprehensive cost-benefit analysis and ignore deep-seated dependencies. The US AI stack relies heavily on Asian manufacturing and Chinese critical minerals, including indium and rare earths, which are essential for photonics and battery production. While policymakers prioritize maintaining a decisive strategic advantage in AI to mitigate speculative risks like recursive self-improvement, the lack of a clear regulatory framework for frontier models leaves global industries vulnerable. True decoupling remains elusive, as China’s dominance in raw material processing and specialized intellectual property creates leverage that cannot be easily countered by short-term domestic investment.