#59 The "Permabear" - Jeremy Grantham on why he expects a market crash, navigating bubbles and giving away $1bn

Market bubbles follow predictable patterns of peak profit margins and unsustainable valuations, often leading to severe economic contractions. Jeremy Grantham, a veteran investor, identifies the current AI-driven market as a bubble likely to experience a 50% correction, drawing parallels to the 1929 crash and the 1970s. Institutional career risk forces firms to remain invested despite clear warning signs, while individuals retain the freedom to act on data. Beyond financial cycles, global stability faces existential threats from climate change and widespread toxicity. Declining fertility rates, evidenced by plummeting sperm counts and reduced sexual activity, signal a long-term workforce crisis that will inevitably depress productivity. Addressing these systemic risks requires moving beyond short-term extrapolation, as the current economic environment remains fragile and disconnected from historical realities.