Most retail media networks are built to look backward. But what if the real opportunity is predicting what customers will do next? In this episode, a reprise of my recent article for The Drum, I dig into a fascinating new model that challenges the industry’s reliance on transaction data and closed-loop attribution.

I’m unpacking my recent conversation with Marco Steinsieck, former head of Sephora’s media network and now GM of Backpack Media, an education-powered commerce media network built on Sallie’s ecosystem. I also play a snippet of Marco's recent appearance on The Middlemen podcast to explore how life-stage signals — like planning for college or making first financial decisions — might be a far more powerful indicator of future purchases than anything sitting in a transaction log. This one raises big questions about where commerce media is headed and whether the current playbook is already outdated.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline

[00:00] – Why most commerce media networks are stuck selling the past

[00:30] – Marco Steinsieck's big idea: predicting future purchases, not past behavior

[01:04] – Life-stage data vs. transaction data: why one is a leading indicator

[02:00] – Inside Backpack Media and how education data powers predictive modeling

[03:15] – Lessons from Sephora: building a high-performing media network without massive scale

[04:00] – The privacy-first challenge of building media inside a financial institution

[07:30] – Is this really “commerce media”? Rethinking the definition of the category

[09:00] – Why predictive commerce is still unproven, and what needs to happen next

Links & Resources

Marco Steinsieck profile on The Drum: Meet the former Sephora exec betting commerce media can predict the future
Marco Steinsieck's full appearance on The Middlemen podcast: Beyond Transactions — Marco Steinsieck (Backpack Media)
Subscribe to The Middlemen on YouTube and Apple Podcasts
Follow Marco Steinsieck on LinkedIn
Read my related articles:
- Best Buy Wants To Become An Ad Platform, Not Just Another RMN
- Sam's Club Cracked the Code on In-Store Retail Media—Here's How They Did It
- Retailers Hit 99% Ad Coverage Without Killing User Experience, New Research Shows
I'm keynoting at Xnurta's Signal to Scale summit on May 19 in Chicago. This is the room to be in if you work in retail media, care about what AI actually changes, and want to leave with something you can put to work. A full day focused on agentic AI, modern measurement, and the strategies the best teams are already building toward. Reserve your spot here.
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Predictive Commerce: Why Life-Stage Data Could Replace Retail Media’s Obsession with Transactions

Retail Media Breakfast Club

Predictive Commerce: Why Life-Stage Data Could Replace Retail Media’s Obsession with Transactions