When Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, researchers estimated it would cut U.S. carbon pollution by more than 40% by the mid-2030s. Then President Trump and a GOP majority partially repealed the law, and many of those emissions declines looked doubtful. What will U.S. carbon emissions look like after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act?

We’re starting to get a sense. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks with John Bistline and Ryna Cui about a new paper they coauthored modeling the Inflation Reduction Act and One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s combined effects. Bistline is the head of science at Watershed and a former researcher at the Electric Power Research Institute. Cui is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and the research director for its Center for Global Sustainability.

Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.

You can find a full transcript of the episode here.

Mentioned:

The new paper: Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the US energy system

A cheat sheet on the energy policy changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

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What Has All This Back-and-Forth Climate Legislating Bought Us?

Shift Key with Robinson Meyer

What Has All This Back-and-Forth Climate Legislating Bought Us?