Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020?

Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together.

In this episode:

– Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits now

Three things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160.

A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day.

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Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell.

The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

The Gap Between the Strait & the Tape - A HyperNormal Situation Report

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The Gap Between the Strait & the Tape - A HyperNormal Situation Report