We examine what our forecast model predicts so far—and consider what might change its confident prediction for one house of Congress and toss-up call for the other. Our correspondent sits down with Steve Reich, a pioneering classical composer who is nearing his 90th birthday. And the surprising reason why firstborns tend to have more-successful lives.

Additional music courtesy of Steve Reich (Nonesuch Records), Erik Hall (Western Vinyl)

Guests and host:

Dan Rosenheck, data editor
Jon Fasman, senior culture correspondent
Ainslie Johnstone, data journalist
Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”

Topics covered:

American elections, Congress, polling, gerrymandering
Steve Reich, contemporary classical music
birth order, statistics

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Bringing the House down: our American midterms model

The Intelligence from The Economist

Bringing the House down: our American midterms model